SHA-256 OF THE SHEET BELOW
172945e0be34779f80d7e6372e0fcf6f11d6365ecf0a4a8a32f955036dd6a556
Posted publicly at the same moment this sent, and read aloud on camera later today. It cannot be changed afterwards, which is the entire point.
BEST BETS
Ted Hurst III · Rec yds OVER 20.5 · -113 Model 26.8 · win 62.7% vs market 49.8%
WORTH A LOOK
Bijan Robinson · Rush yds OVER 87.5 · -114 Model 92.9 · win 54.4% vs market 49.9%
THE HONEST RANGE
Simulated 10,000 times, one unit a pick, 211 picks across 15 games.
A typical week comes out at +22.32 units. The best 5% of weeks reach +45.02. The worst 5% land at -0.38. About one week in twenty loses money. A losing week is not evidence the model is broken, and a winning one is not evidence it works.
Picks in the same game move together; the overlap is what makes the bad week worse than it would look if every pick were independent. A simulated range, not a forecast and not a promise.
Every pick above gets graded on Tuesday, wins, losses, and the ones the board said to skip, and
the grading goes on video at the same size as the wins.
THE WHOLE SHEET
Every pick and every refusal for Week 5, with the reason next to each one: https://papertrailpicks.com/sheets/paper-trail-week-05-2026-10-08.txt
Verify it yourself: download the file and run shasum -a 256 paper-trail-week-05-2026-10-08.txt. It will produce exactly the 64 characters above. If it does not, this is not the list that was committed to. 71 numbers in Buccaneers at Cowboys tonight: the board published 14 and refused 57.
WEEK 1 WAS GRADED WRONG
We found it, corrected it in public, and the corrected record is worse than what was first published: https://papertrailpicks.com/correction
THE RECEIPTS SO FAR
Week 1 63666b2b998141dd23a53f3d07c5df65c431fb91a9f774b7065c6f8b8ee4d72a
Week 2 d02d40f4df9ae944100793b65eefb59362dd1ca0ebae63c123a0bf1599e62967
Week 3 828c9ecfac05dfbeebb1e6df2b63c781385b2e7c2c5f20c9de661a2fe897fe2e
Week 4 299b3e82efe3cd9bfb0d94d2dc8404780974cd266e44bc349598961c86f3b8f1
Week 5 172945e0be34779f80d7e6372e0fcf6f11d6365ecf0a4a8a32f955036dd6a556
WHERE THIS GOES NEXT
The board is what this is today. The instrument is what it is becoming: more markets, more sports, the same rule every time. Committed before kickoff or tip-off, graded after, losses included. Four videos a week: Thursday the commit, Saturday the explainer, Monday the look ahead, Tuesday the grade.